The Census and Middle Earth: Population in Fantasy

        In honor of the 2020 Census, this post will be based on a random question that came to my mind a few days ago: just what is the actual population of Middle Earth? Sure, there seems to be a lot of vacant land on the continent, but the sheer size of some kingdoms like Gondor and the armies they can field seem to suggest at least a population equivalent perhaps to France... what was the estimated population of France in 1500 anyway?

Ah, well then.... Could Middle Earth really sport such a high population for its kingdoms? With this initial number of comparison and question in mind, I turned to good old Internet research, and stumbled across this post from a different sort of blog: http://www.stephenwigmore.com/2012/08/populations-of-middle-earth-lord-of.html

Utilizing real-world equivalent empires and army-population proportions, his estimate is1-2 million people for Gondor, and that is being generous. If France had a population of 16 million, even after the Black Death, and Gondor only has 2 million despite have a much larger land area, why would Tolkien make his world (and other fantasy author's worlds for that matter) so unrealistically depopulated?

There are a few explanations I can think of. First, as I mentioned in a previous post Gondor itself had gone through a plague, so theoretically it may have had a population of 4 million before that. Second, given the constant threats of Mordor, random orc bands, trolls for the mountains, raids from Harad/Umbar, etc., perhaps many villages have been wiped out, lowering overall productivity and food sources for population growth?

        Finally, perhaps the most likely explanation is that a realistically populated fantasy world just doesn't work from a literary sense in most cases. Sure, in the real world most long journeys would pass through countless hamlets, small villages, and the occasional city. However, traveling with the comfort of knowing that there's a town just down the road detracts from the majesty, awe, and dangers of the quest. In addition, many defining moments in the books come from gazing upon what once was, whether that be in the form of statues, ruins, and old roads. Overall, this analysis might be purely nitpicking, but who knows. Perhaps the most fantastical part of fantasy is the idea of a world made more beautiful by having less Homo sapiens on it.